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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister emerged as the exclusive EU chief to support Donald Trump. This support was hardly surprising, given the Hungarian leader's championing of divisive theories including great replacement ideology and his suppression of journalistic liberties. Observers have noted that Hungary's premier practically laid the groundwork for the Maga movement, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Before Hungarian Elections

Recently, ahead of crucial Hungarian elections only approaching in six months, the US president reciprocated with support. While Orbán aims for a fifth consecutive term leading a nation he describes as an illiberal state, his political group is behind in surveys. A meeting to Washington resulted in not just a few signed Maga baseball caps; it obtained considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Waivers and Fiscal Safeguards

Even though previously instructing European nations on the need to halt all resource supplies from Russia, and warning of sanctions against countries continuing to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump agreed to grant a unique waiver for Hungary – the largest EU consumer of Russian crude. As Orbán stated, the US government also agreed to extend a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital should it encounters any upcoming challenges, given that EU institutions is still blocking substantial EU funds to Hungary because of failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this agreement remain somewhat murky. But Donald Trump has shown his inclination to assist like-minded partners as the United States provided a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. Although the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the discussions nonetheless proved a productive session.

EU Concerns and Global Ramifications

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention likely emphasized the international consequences of the coming election, ahead of which the opposition candidate, the rival candidate, holds a solid advantage in the polls. European leaders are accustomed not to anticipate reliable policies from the US government, and are familiar with the American leader's efforts to belittle the bloc. Yet the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase US gas and nuclear energy – flagrantly undermines the bloc's aims to eliminate imports of Russian energy by the target date.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian oil, these two countries, have funneled more than ten billion pounds to the Moscow's war operations.
• Meanwhile, Budapest has repeatedly used the veto power to impede moves in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for aiding the Ukrainian government, and bolstering its position in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Opposition Stance

Péter Magyar has refrained from pledging a drastic turnaround on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on home affairs, while highlighting the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a positive member state. Following repeated disruptions, EU officials can only hold out hope. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, like the protection of minority groups and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His continued obstructionism on the Ukraine issue threatens to weaken its security prospects.